After the destructive tornadoes in the Midwest and South, various media sites linked them to climate change without evidence. In fact, tornado data refute claims that tornadoes are growing in number, range, or severity. However, media outlets reported that climate change is lengthening tornado season, expanding tornado formation area, and adding chemicals to the atmosphere to generate bigger and stronger tornadoes.
The Salon article, “How climate change made the Mississippi tornadoes more likely,” (a reprint from Grist) stated, “That added ingredient of more heat and moisture is going to be the big thing that will influence what happens and we can expect potentially worse tornado outbreaks,” according to Iowa State University meteorology professor William Gallus.
With “What we know about how climate change affects tornado outbreaks,” Axios added, “We also have expectations that the number of severe thunderstorms (hail, wind, tornado) will probably increase in the U.S.”
According to the Washington Post article, “Here’s what we know about how climate change is influencing tornadoes,” average global temperatures have risen more than 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 1800s, and the impact is clear: Warmer air provides more energy for storms to develop and intensify and holds more moisture. Warm, moist air causes violent tornadic storms.”
These statements that more heat and moisture cause more storms are misleading and show a lack of understanding of how weather fronts clash to generate tornadoes. As Climate at a Glance: Tornadoes points out:
“Tornadoes typically form when very cold, dry air clashes with warm, humid air. Climate change warms the Arctic more than the tropics and subtropics, resulting in less of a clash between cold Arctic air masses and warm Gulf of Mexico air masses. As a result, fewer and less violent tornadoes are occurring today than in previous periods, despite media claims that tornadoes are getting more frequent, stronger, or both.”
Despite media reports that tornadoes are becoming more frequent, stronger, or both, fewer and less violent tornadoes are occurring today.
All of these stories ignore one crucial fact: decades of tornado evidence disprove these claims. See Figure 1.
Figure 1. This figure shows the frequency of strong to violent tornadoes (tornadoes registering EF3 or stronger) has been declining since the early 1970s. Sources: Graph by Anthony Watts using official NOAA/Storm Prediction Center data. Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Historical Records and Trends, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology/trends, Graph data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center website, https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm
Despite minor climatic warming over the past 50 years, tornadoes have not increased due to climate change. In its last report, the IPCC stated,
“There is low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena such as tornadoes.”
These stories covered the recent terrible storms that killed many and destroyed much. The trend of severe to powerful tornadoes is not alarming, according to the data. According to National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center data, violent tornadoes, EF3 to EF5 on the enhanced Fujita tornado scale, have declined in recent decades.
The quantity and strength of tornadoes disprove climate change claims. Over the past 50 years, F3 tornadoes have decreased considerably. Tornado-climate change links fail with new evidence. The US had a record-low tornado season in 2018 with no violent tornados at all. The Washington Post reported that 2018 was the first year without violent tornadoes in the US.
While climate change was blamed for the “hottest decade in recorded history” from 2010 to 2019, two record-low tornado years in the US occurred in 2014 and 2018.
Severe tornado outbreaks are generally localized to the US due to its topography and weather patterns.
All of these omissions make one wonder if the media are aware of hard data and previous articles on tornadoes and climate change. Or did they simply not want to consider what those articles and data implied because they presented inconvenient truths that contradicted their attempts to link the two? Or are they knowingly spreading false data? To scare people for some kind of agenda?
The scientist quoted in the Post did not agree that climate change was influencing tornado behaviour.
The purposeful ignoring of these facts shows how poor journalism is now.
The Washington Post banner says, “Democracy dies in darkness.” Science also dies in darkness.
